As a marketer chasing that elusive click-through rate boost via A/B testing, you’ve likely celebrated “statistically significant” wins-like those at Synacor or AT&T’s start.att.net-that later flopped. But here’s the trap: statistical significance often masks meaningless results. This guide exposes why your data-driven decisions in product management fail, and shares sequential testing plus Bayesian methods to make tests truly actionable for your career.
Key Takeaways:
What Makes A/B Tests “Meaningless” Despite Statistical Significance?
Even when your A/B test hits statistical significance, it can still lead to meaningless results if you’re misinterpreting p-values, as seen in marketing campaigns chasing clicks without considering user satisfaction or long-term revenue.
Synacor’s work with start.att.net showed this clearly. They optimized headlines to boost clicks, achieving significance on click-through rate. Yet, they ignored bounce rates and time on site, missing true engagement.
This trap pushes teams toward proxy metrics like clicks, not revenue or trust. Data-driven decisions feel safe, but they create local maximum traps without broader context. Product managers often overlook how these choices affect long-term impact.
Such oversights block innovation, like Netflix’s bold shifts or Apple’s iPhone vision over BlackBerry tweaks. True breakthroughs demand more than significance alone. Next, explore common pitfalls to escape this cycle.
Common Pitfalls in P-value Misinterpretation
P-values tell you if results are likely due to chance, but misinterpreting them as proof of success traps marketers into optimizing for proxy metrics like click-through rate instead of true user satisfaction.
Synacor fell into this with AT&T’s portal, hitting significance on headline tweaks for more clicks. But high bounce rates revealed users left quickly, signaling poor fit. Ignoring effect size and context led to local maximum traps.
To avoid these pitfalls, follow these actionable steps during your next test review. This process takes about 1 hour per test and builds better strategic decisions.
- Check if p-value is below 0.05, but effect size is tiny, like a 0.1% lift in CTR from button color changes. Prioritize meaningful gains over noise.
- Scrutinize sample bias from non-representative traffic, such as AT&T’s captive users on start.att.net. Ensure your audience mirrors real customers.
- Cross-check with qualitative research on engagement, reviewing session length or pages per session. Talk to users about why they bounced after optimized video thumbnails.
- Test for novelty effect by running 30-day cohort retention. Track if gains fade, as with flashy exit modals that harm trust long-term.
Warning: Ignoring these steps repeats Synacor’s mistakes, chasing short-term wins over revenue and loyalty. Shift to holistic metrics for ethical, innovative growth like Tesla or TikTok.
Why Is Statistical Significance a Trap?
Statistical significance becomes a trap when multiple tests inflate false positives, turning random noise into ‘winners’ that mislead strategic decisions in fast-paced marketing environments. Repeated A/B testing on elements like headlines or button colors erodes reliability over time. This pressure for quick wins often ignores deeper metrics such as cohort retention or user satisfaction.
Google’s Doug Bowman quit as product lead partly due to an obsession with p-values, highlighting how data-driven fixation stifles innovation. Teams chase click-through rates or minor lifts in bounce rates, landing in a local maximum that blocks breakthrough redesigns. For spotting true opportunities beyond incremental testing, related callout: trendspotting for marketers using AI assistants to predict viral trends before they peak( https://marketingcareerinsights.com/trendspotting-for-marketers-using-ai-assistants-to-predict-viral-trends-before-they-peak/). Marketing demands constant optimization, yet this repeated testing guarantees misleading results without corrections.
Consider testing headline phrasing across dozens of variations; one ‘significant’ winner might just be luck, not a path to revenue growth. This sets the stage for multiple testing pitfalls, where uncorrected experiments lead to false trust in proxy metrics like session length. Escaping requires understanding these traps to prioritize long-term impact over short-term tweaks.
Product management often falls into this cycle, optimizing for ad impressions while ignoring engagement or pages per session. True progress demands a paradigm shift toward vision, much like Netflix or Tesla disrupted markets beyond incremental gains. Addressing these issues starts with recognizing how statistical significance misleads in high-volume testing.
Multiple Testing and False Positives
Running dozens of A/B tests on variations like headline phrasing or video thumbnails without correction guarantees false positives, where 5% of your ‘significant’ results are just luck. For example, 20 tests at p<0.05 yields 1 false positive expected. This p-hacking turns noise into apparent winners, derailing strategic decisions.
One key problem is uncorrected multiple testing. Use the Bonferroni correction by dividing alpha by the number of tests to maintain reliability. Without it, chasing clicks on an exit modal might seem like a win, but it masks issues in time on site or revenue.
- Pre-set sample sizes to avoid peeking mid-test, which inflates error rates and erodes trust in metrics.
- Account for dependency between variants using sequential analysis, preventing over-optimism in button color tweaks.
- Track cohort retention beyond ad impressions to reveal novelty effects that fade post-launch.
Synacor’s AT&T tests exposed this when initial lifts in click-through rates vanished without retention focus. Experts recommend combining quantitative A/B results with qualitative research to spot sample bias. This approach ensures optimization serves user satisfaction, not just short-term proxies like pages per session.
How Do Sample Size and Power Affect Your Results?
Small sample sizes deliver low statistical power, making it impossible to detect meaningful effects like a 2% lift in session length, leading to underpowered tests that miss real improvements.
Statistical power measures your test’s ability to spot true differences when they exist. Low power from tiny samples often produces false negatives, where a winning variant slips by unnoticed. This wastes time on A/B testing that feels data-driven but delivers shaky results.
Sample size ties directly to power, variance in metrics like pages per session, and the effect size you aim to detect. High variance, such as erratic click-through rates from volatile traffic, demands larger samples to achieve reliable statistical significance. Experts recommend planning ahead to avoid the common trap of stopping early.
Setup takes just 15 minutes with a power calculator. Follow these steps for solid tests that support product management decisions and drive real revenue growth.
- Detect your minimum effect size from benchmarks, like a 1% lift in CTR seen in similar redesigns.
- Use a power calculator at 80% power and alpha of 0.05, which might require around 15,000 visitors per variant for that 1% lift.
- Run a pre-test power analysis with tools like Evan Miller’s calculator to set your sample needs.
- Monitor variance in key metrics like pages per session or bounce rates during early runs.
This process ensures your tests escape the statistical significance trap and reveal true signals amid noise.
Are You Confusing Statistical and Practical Significance?
A statistically significant 0.01% CTR bump might thrill your dashboard but delivers zero practical revenue impact, highlighting the gap between p-values and business reality. Synacor’s tests showed significant headline wins with more clicks, yet no revenue lift followed. This common pitfall traps teams in chasing statistical significance while ignoring real business outcomes.
Statistical significance means p less than 0.05, suggesting results are unlikely due to chance. But practical significance demands an effect size above your minimum detectable change, like a 5% revenue increase. Without both, A/B tests mislead product management into false victories on proxy metrics such as click-through rate.
Consider a button color test yielding a tiny lift in clicks but no change in bounce rates or time on site. Contrast that with a full redesign boosting engagement by 20%, driving revenue through better user satisfaction. Experts recommend prioritizing effect size to escape the local maximum of minor tweaks.
Calculate ROI simply: effect size times traffic times conversion value. This formula grounds data-driven decisions in revenue, not just p-values. Teams like those at AT&T learned this by moving beyond headline phrasing to metrics that matter, fostering trust and long-term impact.
What If Your Test Ignores External Validity?
Your A/B test might crush it on start.att.net traffic but flop with broader audiences due to poor external validity, trapping you in a local maximum like Synacor’s click-obsessed optimizations. This happens when tests perform well in controlled settings but fail in real-world conditions. Ignoring external validity leads to data-driven decisions that don’t scale.
Common challenges undermine test reliability. Sample bias skews results toward specific users, like tech-savvy early adopters. The novelty effect boosts short-term engagement that fades quickly, as seen in AT&T’s redesign flop post-novelty.
Other pitfalls include relying on proxy metrics like clicks while ignoring bounce rates, and overlooking long-term impact. Addressing these requires targeted solutions to ensure tests reflect true user behavior. Here’s how to tackle the main issues.
Challenge 1: Sample Bias
Sample bias occurs when your test group doesn’t represent your full audience, such as testing on desktop users only. This limits external validity and leads to misleading statistical significance. Results that shine in a narrow group often disappoint wider segments.
Solve this with stratified sampling. Divide your audience by key traits like device type or location, then test proportionally across strata. This mirrors real-world diversity and strengthens test outcomes.
For example, if optimizing headline phrasing for video thumbnails, stratify by new versus returning users. Combine with qualitative research to uncover hidden biases early.
Challenge 2: Novelty Effect
The novelty effect inflates initial metrics like click-through rate or time on site, but engagement drops as users habituate. AT&T’s portal redesign succeeded short-term yet failed long-term due to this trap. Your button color test might win clicks initially, only to lose trust over time.
Counter it using 90-day cohort analysis. Track separate user groups over months to measure sustained cohort retention. This reveals if gains persist beyond the honeymoon phase.
Experts recommend pairing this with session length and pages per session metrics. True winners show lasting lifts in user satisfaction and revenue.
Challenge 3: Proxy Metrics
Proxy metrics like ad impressions or clicks ignore deeper signals such as bounce rates or exit modals. Synacor’s focus on clicks chased short-term wins at the expense of engagement. This creates false positives in A/B testing.
Adopt multi-metric success criteria. Define victory as improvements across clicks, bounce rates, and conversion rates together. This ensures holistic product management.
In practice, test an exit modal not just for click lift, but also reduced bounce and higher revenue per session. Avoid dark patterns that boost proxies but harm long-term trust.
Challenge 4: Ignoring Long-Term Impact
Long-term impact gets overlooked in single A/B tests, missing effects on retention or lifetime value. Quick wins in optimization can stifle innovation, much like BlackBerry ignoring the iPhone’s paradigm shift. Strategic decisions need broader foresight.
Use sequential testing to roll out changes gradually and monitor over time. Follow initial tests with holdout groups to assess ongoing performance against baselines.
This approach supports self-disruption, as Netflix did against Blockbuster. Balance tactical A/B tests with vision for breakthrough innovations like TikTok’s engagement model.
How Can You Escape the Significance Trap?
Ditch rigid p-value thresholds by adopting sequential testing and adaptive methods that let you stop early with confidence, saving weeks on marketing experiments. This shifts from fixed-sample sizes to continuous monitoring, perfect for fast-paced needs like testing video thumbnails or exit modals.
Sequential testing checks data as it arrives, building evidence without waiting for arbitrary sample sizes. It ties directly to product management demands for quick, data-driven decisions on metrics like click-through rate and bounce rates.
Adaptive methods adjust mid-test, focusing on user engagement over proxy metrics. This escapes the statistical significance trap, enabling innovation in A/B testing without local maximum pitfalls.
Experts recommend this for high-traffic sites, where real-time insights boost revenue and trust. Apply it to headlines or button color tweaks for faster optimization.
Sequential Testing and Adaptive Methods
Sequential testing monitors results in real-time, allowing early stops when evidence mounts, unlike fixed-sample tests that waste time on inconclusive runs. It prevents sample bias by accumulating data continuously, ideal for video thumbnails driving ad impressions.
Set up with these steps for quick wins in A/B testing:
- Choose boundaries like alpha-spending O’Brien-Fleming to control error rates over time.
- Implement with tools like VWO or Optimizely sequential mode for seamless integration.
- Set metrics as a composite of CTR and bounce rate, plus session length or pages per session.
- Test on steady traffic like 10k users per week, stop at 95% confidence for key variants.
A common mistake is ignoring power drop from peeking, so stick to predefined boundaries. Setup takes about 2 hours, cutting test time dramatically for exit modals or headline phrasing.
For product teams, this supports strategic decisions beyond novelty effects, tracking cohort retention and long-term impact. Pair with qualitative research to validate user satisfaction, avoiding dark patterns in redesigns.
Why Prioritize Effect Size Over P-Values in Marketing?
Effect size quantifies real impact-like a 10% revenue lift-while p-values only flag non-randomness, making it essential for marketing decisions beyond statistical noise.
In A/B testing, p-values chase statistical significance but ignore practical value. A tiny lift in click-through rate might pass p<0.05, yet fail to move the needle on revenue or engagement. Marketers need effect size to spot meaningful changes amid sample bias.
Prioritizing effect size shifts focus from proxy metrics like bounce rates to core outcomes such as cohort retention. This approach avoids the local maximum trap, where button color tweaks yield short-term wins but block innovation. Companies like Synacor embraced this, ditching dark patterns for ethical redesigns that boosted long-term user satisfaction.
Here are best practices to integrate effect size into your marketing workflow:
- Calculate Cohen’s d for engagement metrics like session length and pages per session.
- Set MDE at 5% for high-traffic pages to target relevant lifts in ad impressions or video thumbnails.
- Always prioritize effect size over p<0.05, even if significance is borderline.
- Track relative lift in cohort retention to measure sustained impact beyond novelty effect.
- Combine with qualitative user feedback from headlines and exit modals for a full picture.
How to Implement Bayesian A/B Testing for Better Decisions?
Bayesian A/B testing gives probabilities like ‘Variant B has 92% chance of beating A’ instead of binary p-values, perfect for uncertain marketing environments. This approach updates beliefs with new data, helping marketers avoid the statistical significance trap. It supports data-driven decisions in product management without rigid thresholds.
Start with clear steps to implement it effectively. Choose appropriate priors, select tools, define metrics, set stopping rules, and validate results. This process takes about 4 hours for initial setup, far quicker than traditional methods bogged down by sample size calculations.
Avoid the common mistake of weak priors biasing results. For instance, use Beta(1,1) for click-through rate as a neutral starting point. This keeps tests focused on real user behavior like bounce rates or revenue per session.
Bayesian methods shine in dynamic settings, such as testing headline phrasing or button color changes. They provide ongoing probabilities, enabling faster iteration toward true user satisfaction rather than proxy metrics.
Step 1: Choose Your Priors
Select priors that reflect your prior knowledge without overwhelming data. For click-through rate, Beta(1,1) acts as a uniform prior, assuming no strong beliefs upfront. This prevents bias in early tests for metrics like session length.
Tailor priors to your context, such as Beta(2,2) for conservative estimates on revenue. In product management, this grounds tests in realistic expectations from past campaigns. It helps escape local maximum traps seen in frequentist approaches.
Experts recommend testing priors sensitivity by running simulations. This ensures decisions on engagement metrics remain robust. Poor priors can skew results, much like sample bias in traditional A/B testing.
Step 2: Pick the Right Tools
Use accessible tools like Google Optimize Bayesian for quick web setups or PyMC3 for custom models. These handle posterior calculations automatically, ideal for tracking pages per session or ad impressions. They fit marketing teams without deep stats expertise.
Integrate with analytics platforms to monitor cohort retention live. For complex scenarios, like redesign impacts on time on site, PyMC3 offers flexibility. This shifts from p-value waits to probability updates.
Start small with Google Optimize on video thumbnails tests. Scale to PyMC3 for strategic decisions involving long-term impact. Tools reduce setup time while boosting trust in results.
Step 3: Define Your Success Metric
Pick a primary metric tied to business goals, such as revenue per session over vanity metrics. This aligns tests with true value, avoiding pitfalls like novelty effect in clicks. Include secondary metrics like exit modal interactions for context.
For comprehensive views, combine with qualitative research on user satisfaction. Test holistic changes, not just isolated tweaks like button color. This supports optimization that drives real engagement.
Ensure metrics capture user satisfaction, not just short-term spikes. In marketing, focus on pages per session to gauge deeper interest. Clear definitions prevent misinterpretation of probabilities.
Step 4: Set Stopping Rules
Stop testing when the probability of one variant winning exceeds 95%. This rule provides confidence without arbitrary sample sizes, perfect for fast-paced environments like social media headlines. It allows early decisions on winning designs.
Monitor posteriors daily for metrics like bounce rates. Unlike frequentist methods, you act on accumulating evidence. This agility helps in competitive spaces, avoiding delays from insignificant p-values.
Adjust thresholds for high-stakes tests, like major redesigns. Pair with holdout validation to confirm. Flexible rules enable strategic decisions with growing certainty.
Step 5: Validate with Holdout Groups
Reserve a holdout group to verify Bayesian results post-test. Run it alongside your experiment to check consistency on key metrics like revenue. This builds extra trust in probabilities over binary outcomes.
Compare holdout performance against winners, watching for cohort retention drifts. Useful for detecting issues like dark patterns inflating short-term gains. Validation ensures long-term reliability.
Incorporate qualitative checks for deeper insights. This step solidifies data-driven choices, bridging to broader innovation. It counters risks from incomplete data in initial runs.
What Career-Boosting Habits Avoid A/B Pitfalls?
Top marketers like Doug Bowman escaped p-value traps by blending stats with qualitative research and bold vision, boosting careers beyond tactical optimization. Bowman joined Airbnb after Google, where he shifted focus from endless A/B testing to strategic decisions. This move highlighted the limits of statistical significance obsession.
Adopt habits that prioritize long-term impact over short-term metrics like click-through rate or bounce rates. Question proxy metrics in meetings to avoid local maximum traps. Build a portfolio of effect-size wins that demonstrate real user satisfaction and revenue growth.
Experts recommend learning Bayesian methods for more flexible analysis than fixed A/B tests. Advocate for multi-armed bandits to make decisions faster without rigid sample sizes. Study cases like Netflix and Apple self-disruption to inspire breakthrough innovation.
Switch to Multi-Armed Bandits for Faster Insights
Fixed A/B testing locks you into waiting for statistical significance, often delaying action. Multi-armed bandits dynamically allocate traffic to winning variants, balancing exploration and exploitation. This approach suits fast-paced product management where speed matters.
For example, testing headline phrasing or video thumbnails becomes more efficient. Teams escape the novelty effect by continuously learning from live data. Cohort retention improves as you adapt to real user behavior over time.
In practice, apply bandits to ad impressions or button color tests. This habit signals strategic thinking in meetings. Careers advance when you deliver quicker, data-driven wins without sample bias pitfalls.
Master Bayesian Methods Quickly
Traditional statistical significance relies on p-values that mislead in small samples. Bayesian methods update beliefs with new evidence, offering probabilities for better trust in results. Spend focused time learning these via structured online courses.
Practical steps include analyzing session length or pages per session with priors from past tests. Avoid dark patterns by incorporating ethics into your models. This skill differentiates you in data-driven environments.
Bayesian tools handle uncertainty in metrics like time on site or exit modals. Product managers who master this push beyond optimization to innovation. Your career gains from making bolder, informed strategic decisions.
Question Proxy Metrics and Build Effect-Size Portfolios
Proxy metrics like clicks or engagement often hide true user satisfaction. Challenge them in meetings by asking about long-term cohort retention or revenue ties. This builds your reputation as a thoughtful leader.
Create a portfolio of effect-size wins, showcasing redesigns with meaningful impact. Highlight cases where you moved past button color tweaks to features boosting pages per session. Real examples from your work prove value over vanity metrics.
- Document tests avoiding sample bias through diverse cohorts.
- Pair quantitative gains with qualitative research insights.
- Show self-disruption like Netflix streaming pivot or Apple’s iPhone shift.
Learn from Self-Disruption Leaders
Companies like BlackBerry clung to keyboards, missing the iPhone wave. Netflix and Apple succeeded by embracing self-disruption over endless A/B optimization. Study these to fuel your vision beyond tactical tests.
Tesla disrupted autos, Instagram stories challenged Snapchat, TikTok upended social feeds. These cases teach ignoring short-term metrics for paradigm shifts. Apply lessons to avoid AT&T or Synacor-like stagnation.
In your career, reference these in discussions on innovation. Combine with habits like questioning bounce rates’ role in big redesigns. This positions you for roles driving trust and engagement through bold moves.
Marketing Case Studies: Tests That Failed the Significance Test
Synacor’s AT&T start.att.net tests hit statistical significance on clicks and headlines but failed long-term due to high bounce rates, while Netflix’s Reed Hastings ignored A/B for paradigm shifts.
Teams optimized click-through rates with custom A/B tools, yet revenue stayed flat. Proxy metrics like clicks ignored time on site and user satisfaction. This case shows how local maximum traps data-driven decisions.
Google’s Doug Bowman quit over rigid p-values, joining Airbnb for 9x growth through vision-led changes. BlackBerry clung to A/B optimization on keyboards, missing the iPhone’s touchscreen revolution. These stories warn against over-relying on statistical significance.
Ethics matter too. Dark patterns in tests, like tricky exit modals, boost short-term metrics but erode trust. Focus on cohort retention and long-term impact instead.
Synacor/AT&T: The Proxy Metrics Pitfall
Synacor ran A/B tests on start.att.net, tweaking headlines and layouts for higher clicks. Results showed statistical significance in engagement, but high bounce rates killed conversions. Revenue remained flat despite the wins.
Proxy metrics like clicks misled the team. Users clicked novelty but left quickly, revealing sample bias in short tests. Experts recommend pairing A/B with qualitative research for true insights.
Lesson: Track session length, pages per session, and revenue per user. Avoid the novelty effect by testing cohort retention over weeks. This prevents chasing meaningless lifts in button color or headline phrasing.
Practical fix: Segment tests by user cohorts. Combine quantitative A/B data with user feedback to escape proxy traps and drive real product management gains.
Google to Airbnb: Doug Bowman’s p-Value Rebellion
Doug Bowman, Google’s product manager, grew frustrated with endless A/B testing ruled by p-values. Every decision, from video thumbnails to ad impressions, needed significance. He quit for bolder strategic decisions.
At Airbnb, Bowman prioritized vision over stats, fueling 9x growth. This shift beat optimization’s local maximum, embracing redesigns that boosted engagement. It proves data-driven rigidity stifles innovation.
Takeaway: Use A/B for tactics like session length tweaks, not core features. Balance with qualitative input to avoid over-optimizing at the cost of breakthrough innovation.
Actionable advice: Set “no-test” zones for high-risk ideas. Monitor long-term metrics like user satisfaction to guide self-disruption, as Bowman did successfully.
BlackBerry vs iPhone: Vision Trumps Optimization
BlackBerry excelled in A/B tests on keyboards and email, hitting significance on metrics like time on site. Yet, Apple’s iPhone disrupted with touchscreens, ignoring incremental tweaks. BlackBerry’s data-driven path led to decline.
Optimization hit a local maximum, blind to paradigm shifts. iPhone’s vision captured engagement through intuitive design, outpacing BlackBerry’s refinements. This echoes Netflix and Tesla ignoring A/B for reinvention.
Warning on ethics: BlackBerry’s later dark patterns, like aggressive pop-ups, chased clicks but hurt trust. Instagram and TikTok won by focusing on user delight over manipulative tests.
Key lesson: Reserve A/B for low-stakes changes, like phrasing tests. For big bets, blend qualitative research with vision to spark the next iPhone-level impact.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does “Why Your A/B Tests are Meaningless-The ‘Statistical Significance’ Trap and How to Escape It” mean for marketers?
In marketing, blindly chasing statistical significance in A/B tests often leads to meaningless results because it ignores practical business impact, sample size realities, and testing context. This trap wastes time on tiny effect sizes that don’t move the needle, distracting from real growth strategies in your marketing career.
Why are many A/B tests considered meaningless despite statistical significance?
Even with p-values under 0.05, A/B tests can be meaningless if the effect size is negligible (e.g., 0.1% lift on conversions). “Why Your A/B Tests are Meaningless-The ‘Statistical Significance’ Trap and How to Escape It” highlights how over-relying on significance ignores real-world costs, traffic constraints, and whether the change scales for marketing campaigns.
What is the “Statistical Significance” Trap in A/B testing?
The trap is fixating on arbitrary thresholds like 95% confidence intervals, leading to underpowered tests or endless iterations. As explained in “Why Your A/B Tests are Meaningless-The ‘Statistical Significance’ Trap and How to Escape It,” this misleads marketers into false confidence, stalling career-progressing decisions in favor of “safe” but irrelevant stats.
How can marketers escape the Statistical Significance Trap?
Escape by prioritizing Minimum Detectable Effect (MDE), practical significance, and sequential testing over rigid p-values. “Why Your A/B Tests are Meaningless-The ‘Statistical Significance’ Trap and How to Escape It” advises focusing on business metrics like revenue impact to make A/B tests actionable for marketing career advancement.
Why do small sample sizes make A/B tests meaningless?
Small samples inflate variance, making statistical significance unreliable and prone to false positives. “Why Your A/B Tests are Meaningless-The ‘Statistical Significance’ Trap and How to Escape It” warns marketers against this pitfall, urging proper power analysis to ensure tests deliver career-boosting insights rather than noise.
What should marketers measure instead of just statistical significance in A/B tests?
Focus on effect size, confidence intervals, and ROI alongside significance. “Why Your A/B Tests are Meaningless-The ‘Statistical Significance’ Trap and How to Escape It” empowers marketers to shift to holistic evaluation, turning tests into strategic tools for career growth in competitive marketing landscapes.
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